Sal Frelick's struggles this season have sparked a heated debate among Brewers fans. While some are calling for his immediate replacement, I believe that Frelick deserves more time to prove himself. This article delves into the key areas of concern, offering a comprehensive analysis of his performance and the potential implications for the team.
Offense: A Tale of Two Seasons
Frelick's offensive woes are evident in his Statcast data. His exit velocities, barrel percentage, and hard-hit percentage have all taken a hit, with the latter two in the bottom 10% of the league. However, what's more intriguing is the comparison between this season and last. Frelick's BABIP has dropped significantly, indicating a decline in his ability to make contact with the ball. This is particularly concerning given his high ground ball percentage, which has increased from 46.7% in 2025 to 53.8% this season. The data suggests that Frelick's struggles are not just a fluke, but rather a result of a fundamental change in his hitting approach.
One possible explanation is that Frelick is over-swinging, resulting in more topped balls and a lower launch angle. This would explain the drop in his BABIP and the increase in ground balls. However, it's also worth noting that Frelick's bat speed is relatively slow, which could be a contributing factor. Nevertheless, Frelick's ability to not strike out is still impressive, and he has been maximizing his theoretical exit velocity on swings. This raises the question: is Frelick's decline a result of a change in his approach, or is it a sign of a deeper issue?
Defense: A Declining Performance
Frelick's defensive struggles are even more alarming. His range and arm strength have both declined significantly, with his arm value now in the 9th percentile. This is a stark contrast to his performance last season, where he was in the 79th percentile in arm value and 66th percentile in arm strength. The question remains: is Frelick injured, or is there another underlying issue?
One possible explanation is that Frelick is playing through an injury, but this doesn't fully explain the decline in his defensive metrics. It's also worth noting that Frelick's sprint speed has remained relatively consistent, which suggests that his speed is not the issue. However, the fact that he is still in the 86th percentile in sprint speed is a positive sign, indicating that his speed is not the primary concern.
The Case for Patience
Despite Frelick's struggles, I believe that he deserves more time to prove himself. Frelick is still only 26 years old, and he has two years of solid major-league baseball behind him. His fWAR of 3.6 last season is a testament to his potential, and he has earned the benefit of the doubt. Moreover, Frelick is a great teammate who works hard and is clearly one of Pat Murphy's favorites.
However, the concerns are real, and the Brewers should not ignore them. If Frelick is injured, he should stop trying to play through it and go on the injured list. Lara, who has been red-hot in Triple-A Nashville, could be a viable replacement. Nevertheless, Lara is no sure thing, and there's no guarantee that he would outperform Frelick's 71 OPS+ this season. The Brewers should give Frelick the chance to turn things around, but they must also be prepared to make a change if necessary.
In conclusion, Sal Frelick's struggles this season are a cause for concern, but they are not insurmountable. With patience and the right adjustments, Frelick could turn things around and become a valuable asset to the Brewers. However, if his decline continues, the team must be prepared to make a change. The question remains: can Frelick bounce back, or is it time to move on?
